www.supplyrisk.com
Russia Launches Massive Military Attack on Ukraine
KEY POINTS
- Full invasion and missile strikes on Ukrainian north, east and south
- U.S., EU and allies expected to impose financial, business and tech sanctions
- Large humanitarian impact expected
- Spike in prices of oil and certain metals
- Global cyber-attacks are expected
U.S., EU and allies impose financial, commercial, and tech sanctions
Article updated 2/24/2022
Russian troops invaded Ukraine from three sides as missiles exploded in the country’s capital, Kyiv, and many other Ukrainian cities including Myrhorad, Karkiv, Mariupol, Melitopol, Kherson, Odesa. Tragically, the humanitarian toll is expected to be large and long-lasting.
A Russian military invasion of the Ukraine could have a massive humanitarian impact including the estimated death of 25,000 to 50,000 Ukrainian civilians, 10,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian solders, and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. Amnesty International estimated in January that 1-5 million Ukrainian refugees could seek shelter in other European countries, with a smaller number seeking shelter in the USA.
SRS is reaching out to specific suppliers with production sites or distribution sites in Europe to ask them directly for the impact on manufacturing and deliveries, with supplier responses available in the SRS reporting portal and phone app.
A war and the resulting sanctions will have a significant effect on inflation of metals, grains, and fertilizers as sanctions of Russian banks and businesses will largely cut-off Russian commodity exports to the West. Russia is a major exporter of rare-earth minerals and heavy metals, including being the second-largest exporter of titanium which is used in airplanes and many other items. Russia supplies about a third of the world’s palladium, a rare metal used in catalytic converters. A war in the Ukraine would also disrupt Ukraine’s role as a major source of neon, with is used in manufacturing certain semiconductors. Prices of nickel and aluminum are already at multi-year highs on supply disruption fears since Russia is a significant supplier of both. In addition, Russia produces 4% of global cobalt production, 3.5% of global copper, 7% of global nickel, 40% of palladium, 10% of platinum, 10% of gold, 4% of steel, 30% of rough diamonds, 13% of fertilizers containing potash, phosphate or nitrogen.
The conflict also increases the risk of cyber-attacks throughout the world. Russia has sophisticated cyber-attack capabilities and is expected to use them to strike countries that sanction it. The Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security have recently singled out banks, power grid operators, energy infrastructure, and federal agencies as likely targets of cyber-attacks. Cyber specialists at the Harvard Kennedy School recommend that organizations immediately take the following steps: “1) Review your business continuity plans; 2) Closely examine your supply chain; 3) actively engage your peer networks, vendors, and law enforcement around cyber intrusions; 4) Instill a security mindset in your employees; and 5) Make sure your corporate intelligence and IT teams are working closely together on solutions.”
“Corporate security and intelligence teams have said they’re seeing an increase in cyber probes, and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the European Central Bank have both issued warnings about potential Russian cyberattacks.”
P. Kolbe, M. Morrow, and L. Zabierek of the Intelligence and Cyber Projects, Harvard Kennedy School
There is little Western bank exposure to potential Russian sanctions, outside of several European banks. It should be noted though that a combination of oil shock and tightened Fed monetary policy could also put the U.S. economy at greater risk of recession.
Inflation in grain prices is likely since the Ukraine and Russia account for almost 29% of global wheat exports, a disruption of which would lead to a major food shortage. Ukraine is also the world’s third largest exporter of corn. Grain exports from Kazakhstan and Romania from ports in the Black Sea could also be disrupted by military action.
The US, EU, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada and others added on February 24 to their sanctions against Russia. The US responded by cutting off Sberbank from the U.S. financial system; placing full blocking sanctions on VTB and three other Russian financial institutions; imposing new debt and equity restrictions on 13 enterprises and entities; targeting seven Russian elites and their families; and hitting 24 Belarusians for supporting Russia’s invasion. European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised to “weaken Russia’s economic base and its capacity to modernize” following the “barbaric attack” by Moscow against Ukraine. The EU added sanctions to Russian financial, energy and transport sectors and various Russian individuals. Further financial, commercial, and technology sanctions are expected to be imposed on Russia as the aggression continues.
The Russian military threat has united NATO, the EU and the USA in ways that were not predicted as recently as 2019 when French President Macron declared NATO “brain dead”. A senior NATO official recently commented that “NATO is a political and military alliance and can talk about bolstering defenses on Europe’s eastern flank. The EU is more of an economic powerhouse that can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the US when it comes to sanctions,”, while adding that the EU quickly put together proposals for a package of support funds, sanctions against Russia and emergency gas supplies. Despite Russia having sent a letter of demands to dozens of national governments, the response was highly coordinated, with Russia receiving only three replies, from NATO, the U.S. and the EU. The U.S. has added troops in eastern NATO countries and has reaffirmed its commitment to NATO.
For more information, see:
AP, World leaders slap sanctions on the Kremlin over invasion, February 22, 2022
CNN, EU leader promises “harshest ever sanctions” against Russia in response to “barbaric attack”, February 22, 2022
CNN, Biden says he’s now convinced Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but leaves door open for diplomacy, February 18, 2022
Reuters, How a Russia-Ukraine conflict might hit global markets, February 19, 2022
Reuters, Factbox: Commodity supplies at risk if Russia hit by sanctions, February 18, 2022
CNN, Vladimir Putin has succeeded in uniting his opponents, February 19, 2022
National Public Radio (NPR), How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could affect you, February 16, 2022
Harvard Business Review, The Cybersecurity Risks of an Escalating Russia-Ukraine Conflict, February 18, 2022
iNews.co.uk, What would the impact of a war in Ukraine be? Why it could lead to food shortages and a humanitarian crisis, February 12, 2022
Wall Street Journal, Notes on the News, February 18, 2022
