---
title: Oil Execs Warn Market Turmoil Could Persist for Years
description: Shrinking oil reserves and persistent refining constraints are increasing the risk of prolonged disruption across energy and industrial supply chains.
image: https://media.supplyrisk.com/hubfs/AI-Generated%20Media/Images/Coastal%20Oil%20Refinery%20Tank%20Farm%20Aerial.png
---

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# Oil Execs Warn Market Turmoil Could Persist for Years

by Lauren Palmer

 October 6, 2026

Shrinking oil reserves and persistent refining constraints are increasing the risk of prolonged disruption across energy and industrial supply chains.

Shipping bottlenecks, deep cuts in refinery output and inventory draws that could take years to replace are expected to keep global oil prices high beyond 2026, industry executives said at a conference in London.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the market is operating with an increasingly limited supply cushion after months of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil inventories stood at nearly 10 billion barrels before the crisis, but nearly 3 billion barrels of supply have since been lost, prompting withdrawals of more than 1 billion barrels from inventories to help offset the shortfall. The lost supply is equivalent to roughly half the crude oil and petroleum products that would normally have moved through Hormuz over the same period, Nasser said.

“Estimates suggest less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available,” Nasser said. “So, the system is already straining.”

Even a full reopening of Hormuz would not immediately restore market balance. Governments and companies would still need to rebuild heavily depleted inventories while continuing to meet demand.

“Emergency reserves might buy us a winter. They cannot fix long-term supply,” Nasser said. “Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years.”

**The Strain Is Even Greater in Refined Fuels**

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said the Iran war has left the world short approximately 6 million barrels per day of refined products as Middle East refineries remain below full production.

“While the squeeze on crude is serious, refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply,” Nasser said, adding that “until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify.”

> “There is not enough refining capacity in world to make up for shuttered capacity in Middle East Gulf.”

Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO

The shortfall highlights a broader supply-chain constraint: crude supply does not guarantee adequate fuel or feedstock supply. Refineries, inventories, pipelines, storage terminals and shipping routes are all needed to convert and move crude into the fuels and petrochemical feedstocks used by manufacturers.

Nasser noted that petrochemicals are used in the production of more than nine out of 10 manufactured goods globally, underscoring the knock-on effects that disruptions in feedstock and raw-material supplies can have on industrial production.

“And with shortages of aluminum, sulfur, helium, and petrochemicals, solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs) are not immune either. Everything is connected,” Nasser said.

Security risks across Middle Eastern energy and shipping routes remain high. Recent tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, renewed fighting near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and attacks on Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran show that threats are extending across multiple critical trade corridors at once. Continued instability around these routes raises the risk of further disruptions to tanker traffic, energy infrastructure and regional crude and refined-product exports.

**Risk to Asian Healthcare Manufacturing Increases**

Asian petrochemical producers continue to face constrained and elevated-cost feedstock supplies, as reduced Middle Eastern availability and high freight costs disrupt traditional supply flows.

Before the Iran war, more than half of Middle East Gulf refined-product exports were destined for Asia. The region also sources two-thirds of its 1.8 million b/d of naphtha imports from the Middle East, while approximately 95% of Middle East naphtha exports are absorbed by Korea, Japan, ASEAN countries and China, primarily for petrochemical production, according to the IEA. Naphtha is a major petrochemical feedstock used to produce ethylene and propylene, the building blocks for plastics used in healthcare product manufacturing.

The risk is particularly acute for smaller Asian markets already facing constrained fuel supplies, as their reserves are being depleted and they receive reduced refined-product exports from larger Asian suppliers. Further disruption to Middle East exports magnifies their fuel crisis, putting healthcare items containing plastics at further risk. Smaller Asian countries include Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Products made in Asia and with a high petrochemical dependency include:

- PPE such as N95 masks, surgical masks, gloves, face shields, gowns, drapes (Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Synthetic Latex)
- IV bags and tubing (Polyethylene, PVC)
- Syringes (Polyethylene, Polypropylene)
- Catheters (Polyethylene, PVC, Silicone)
- Oxygen masks (PVC, Silicone)
- Suction canisters (Polypropylene, Polycarbonate, Polyethylene, Copolyester plastics)
- Diagnostic kits (ABS, Polycarbonate, Polystyrene)

Email support@supplyrisk.com to meet to tailor an action plan for the specific items that SRS has identified at heightened risk of price increases and allocations due to severe impact of the Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions on healthcare manufacturing in Asia.

 For more information

Reuters, [Oil market turmoil could last for years, executives say](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/replenishing-crude-fuel-supplies-could-take-two-years-saudi-aramco-ceo-says-2026-10-05/), October 5

ICIS, [Global oil supply buffer ‘scarily thin’ amid risks – Aramco CEO](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/10/06/11236127/global-oil-supply-buffer-scarily-thin-amid-risks-aramco-ceo/), October 6

Reuters, [Oil, fuel supply buffers are thinning as Middle East conflict continues, Chevron CEO says](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-fuel-supply-buffers-are-thinning-as-middle-east-conflict-continues-chevron-2026-10-06/), October 6

Forbes, [America’s Diesel Problem Isn’t A Lack Of Oil](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/10/04/america-has-plenty-of-oil-but-not-enough-diesel/), October 4

IEA, [Oil Market Report](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a25ddf53-cd6c-4910-ac90-16bfd28399e7/-12MAR2026_OilMarketReport.pdf),

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