---
title: Trump Favors Continued Economic Pressure Over Renewed Iran Strikes
description: Trump favors maintaining economic pressure and the naval blockade against Iran as global refined-product markets face supply constraints.
image: https://media.supplyrisk.com/hubfs/Media/Images/Navy%20Cargo%20Ship%20Crossing%20Hazy%20Strait%20At%20Afternoon.png
---

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# Trump Favors Continued Economic Pressure Over Renewed Iran Strikes

by Lauren Palmer

 November 13, 2026

### Trump favors maintaining economic pressure and the naval blockade against Iran as global refined-product markets face supply constraints.

President Donald Trump is opting for continued economic pressure and a naval blockade against Iran rather than resuming large-scale military strikes or pursuing an immediate peace agreement, according to Axios.

Following a November 9 meeting with Qatar's prime minister, Trump described renewed strikes as "quite unlikely" and said they "don't seem to be necessary." The administration is also preparing a new operation, dubbed "Iron Gate," to restrict land routes used by Iran to transport advanced weapons and technology.

Qatar continues mediating negotiations between Washington and Tehran, but disagreements persist over U.S. demands for Iranian nuclear concessions, Tehran's insistence on lifting the naval blockade and releasing frozen funds and guarantees against renewed military action.

The implications of the administration’s strategy are that a severe escalation appear less likely in the near term, but resulting disruptions will persist.

Against this backdrop, disruptions to Middle Eastern energy exports continue to constrain global refined-product supplies despite recovering crude oil shipments.

In its November 13 Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that refined-product and LPG exports from the Gulf remained at roughly half of pre-war levels. The agency identified diesel as the most pressing supply concern, with Russian refinery disruptions further compounding Middle Eastern export losses.

Tight diesel supplies are also pressuring jet fuel markets as refiners prioritize diesel production. According to S&P Global Energy, depleted inventories and limited spare refining capacity leave jet fuel vulnerable to renewed price spikes in 2027. “The diesel's tightness is going to continue to drive jet tightness,” said James Simpson, global head of aviation research at S&P Global Energy, during the November 11 IATA Aviation Energy Forum.

Rob McLeod, global head of commodity risk solutions at Hartree Partners, warned that inventories have fallen to “exceptionally low” levels, leaving little buffer against further disruptions. He identified refining capacity, rather than crude oil availability, as the primary supply constraint. “Nowadays really refining is the key constraint,” McLeod said.

Refined-product supplies remain vulnerable to further disruptions, particularly in parts of Asia where manufacturers face higher costs and reduced availability of fuels and petrochemical feedstocks used in plastics production.

Email [support@supplyrisk.com](mailto:support@supplyrisk.com) to meet to tailor an action plan for the specific items that SRS has identified at heightened risk of price increases and allocations due to severe impact of the Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions on healthcare manufacturing in Asia. 

 

For more information, see:

Axios, [Trump swung between war and diplomacy — then chose a third way](https://www.axios.com/2026/11/10/trump-iran-war-diplomacy-economic-crackdown), November 10

Axios, [After midterm defeat, Trump faces mostly bad options in Iran](https://www.axios.com/2026/11/05/trump-iran-war-midterm-defeat-bad-options), November 4

International Energy Agency (IEA), [Oil Market Report — November 2026](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2026), November 13

S&P Global Energy, [Thin refining buffers expose jet fuel to fresh price spikes in 2027](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/111226-thin-refining-buffers-expose-jet-fuel-to-fresh-price-spikes-in-2027), November 12

Kpler, [Refined products demand to fall 2.4 mbd in 2026 before an uneven 2027 recovery](https://www.kpler.com/blog/refined-products-demand-to-fall-2-4-mbd-in-2026-before-an-uneven-2027-recovery), October 22

---

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